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C00002 00002	Severe Conservation
C00007 00003	1. romantic view of conservation
C00009 00004	Ideology and energy
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C00018 00006	subtopics
C00019 00007	Needed statistics
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Severe Conservation

Conservation till it hurts - a lot

get help about (1) extent of domestic consumption reduction in WWII - here
and in Europe

(2) effects of reduction

(3) anecdotes

1. reduction of housing stock
2. dormitories
3. travel restrictions
4. drastic shrinkage of resort industries

The dominant view of conservation in America is romantic.

For what do we use all that energy

Temporary and long-term measures

The plan will mobilize people's co-operation provided it is a plan
to recover our standard of living and not just to endure.  There will
probably have to be new people in charge who are not tarred with
having said that little can be done to increase production.

Mobilization may close down automobile production and colleges
in order to get production capability and manpower for producing
energy production facilities.

At the present time, public co-operation with requests to conserve
electricity may not be in the public interest.
Cohen wants me to treat replacing travel by communication
Nothing should be done for symbolic reasons.

	This paper is qualitative treatment of problems that require
a quantitative treatment.  I will discuss levels of energy shortage
and severe conservation measures, but I lack the information to say
what measures will be necessitated by what levels of shortage.
It seemed more important to be qualitatively comprehensive than to
give a quantitative treatment based on limited ideas of the kinds
of shortage and methods for dealing with them.

Brooks - May 19
	require thermostats set at 45
	compulsory van pooling for all organizations employing more than X
	(stockpile vans)
	WW2 style rationing (which was dictated by  a shortage of
rubber not gasoline) wouldn't work. - Brooks
	300 to 500 megawatt plants
	there were political judgments in the CONAES report, especially
lower than possible nuclear (sub business as usual).  This is
partly explicit in the report.
	there is some mention of a high electrification scenario.
	shale was downgraded because its environmental effects
are concentrated
	coal stoves, carcinogens from wood
	heat rationing.

Notes prepared for talk with Brooks
 Dynanamics of the spread of pessimism, eco-errors

Alliances with anti-capitalism
Claims on power
institutionalization
inhomogeneity in U.S. and world
lack of substantial pro-technology rival
by holding closed conference SE2 is failing to mobilize
analyzing institution of opposition opens one to charge
of making ad hominem attacks

For what do we use all thaat energy

In order to mobilize, we will have to overcome anti-technology
political obstacles, e.g. beat the anti-nuclear movement.
To overcome the obstacles, we must understand hem.  We must
especially understand anti-technology as a political force.
1. romantic view of conservation
and its role in current energy ideology

2. history as an indication of what severe conservation would
be like.

3. the local character of shortages

4. severe conservation measures

5. very severe conservation measures

6. suspending the price mechanism - it's immediate benefits and
long range costs
a slide of distortions
	ration based on cars or drivers licenses
	keeping a car that would otherwise be junked
	getting a license to get the ration

7. Political adoptability and acceptability of various measures
depends on how Administration and Congress lead.

Non market rationing will last how long.

What kind of advance plan shold there be, since the present
troubles are mainly political?  A presently prepared plan
will concede too much to shibboleths that will have
to be abandoned in the actual crisis.  It would be best
if an administrative agency were to prepare a range of
plans with energy vs. ecology a parameter.

Ideology and energy

	compromising on facts and not merely on policy

See also EXTREM[s80,jmc]

The President must attack those extreme environmentalists

subtopics

The assumed crisis

Areas of shortage

	Heating

	Transportation

Technical fixes

	Communication for travel and commuting

Rationing, allocations and prices

Political issues

Research methodology

Needed statistics

	Historical and other countries' domestic energy consumption.

	Inhomogeneities within the country.